Earnings season so far is looking grim for the food industry, particularly among buyers of ingredients. Domino's shares have fallen a breathtaking (even in the current market) 29 percent so far on Tuesday on bad earnings news. PepsiCo reported that profits fell by 9.6 percent in its third quarter. Grocer Supervalu's profits were down 14 percent, thanks to its perhaps ill-advised attempts to keep prices down.
Domino's, whose cheap pizza might make it somewhat safe in any other recession, is suffering directly from the credit crisis. Franchisees are finding it hard to get loans, and Domino's CEO David Brandon told the Associated Press on Tuesday that the company may step in to provide "very non-material levels of bridge financing."
The company had been relying on strong franchisees to buy up weaker outlets, but without financing, the company is increasingly stuck with the losers. Earnings fell about 9 percent in the third quarter, and sales were off by 4 percent. At 13 cents a share, profits fell well short of analysts' expectations of 21 cents.
It's not clear why sales were so far off. "In the past, pizza chains have been unable to mitigate cheese costs as their main issue," writes Jon C. Ogg at 24/7 Wall Street. "But a weak consumer shouldn't keep people from being able to eat pizza at affordable chains like Domino's." Brandon said: "Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, and I take full responsibility for it."
Supervalu, owner of grocers Albertson's, Jewel/Osco and others, as well as a wholesale grocery operation, saw its earnings fall 14 percent. The company cited its strained attempts to keep traffic up in it stores by keeping prices down, despite mounting costs. Shoppers looking for bargains, however, are tending to flock to discounters such as Wal-Mart and Kroger. Supervalu might do better by trying to pass along some costs to its loyal shoppers.
On the other side of the equation, ingredient suppliers so far seem to be much better positioned for the recession. Cargill, the privately held agri-business giant, reported Monday that its first-quarter earnings soared by 62 percent, thanks to strong fertilizer sales and its stake in Mosaic, a maker of phosphates and Potash. Although sales of ingredients themselves dropped slightly, Cargill's results show that, at this stage of the recession, it's much better to be a supplier than a buyer.